PHILADELPHIA — If not crisis time, the Phillies season has reached the “what is wrong” portion of the schedule. And the simplest answer to that quandary was laid bare on last week’s disastrous 1-5 road trip.
The Phillies offense is struggling. This was a trip in which the Phillies scored six runs in the first inning in Toronto, then 10 in the trip’s final five games plus eight innings, losing the last five decisions.
Along the way, here was the production from the outfield:
• Max Kepler: 1-for-16, with a run and an RBI
• Brandon Marsh: 2-for-11
• Johan Rojas: 1-for-6
• Nick Castellanos: A relative tear at 6-for-21, with two RBIs and two runs scored which, at 16 runs in a week, is big production.
The Phillies, losers of nine of 10 games, are in a tough spot. Many of the biggest reasons fall squarely at the feet of the outfield and the front office that decided it better to leave it untouched in the hopes of continued development that hasn’t come.
“I think it’s natural to try and do too much when you’re going through something like this,” manager Rob Thomson said of the team-wide mindset Monday. “But every team goes through something like this every year. My 40 years in the game, especially in the big leagues, every year our team has gone through something like this — just got to fight.”
FanGraphs positional wins above replacement tells a damning picture. The Phillies are first in pitching WAR as a staff, thanks to 10.1 WAR from its outstanding starters. They rank third among WAR at first base and the designated hitter spot, a point hammered home with Bryce Harper out with a wrist injury. They are in the top 10 at shortstop and second base, then fall to 18th at catcher and third base.
But the outfield? The Phillies rank 20th in production from center field, 23rd in left and 29th in right.
Their entire outfield’s combined WAR of 3.1 this year is less than what Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has produced by himself entering Monday night’s series against the Phillies.
It’s not like this offensive shortfall is the cost for defensive gains: The Phillies are second-worst in MLB in defensive runs saved at minus 35. That’s a whopping 82 runs behind league leader Atlanta’s plus 47.
The left field platoon led by Kepler has never gotten going. He’s hitting .235 and slugging just .404, though the former Twin is at least a plus defender for the position.
In center, Marsh has been awful, hitting .216. His slugging percentage of .315 is somehow higher than Rojas’, with the latter’s latest false dawn bottoming out with his average regressing back to .245.
Castellanos is the puzzler. He’s third on the team in batting average at .282 and has played every game since the start of 2024.
His defense nullifies the positives he accrues at the plate: He is second-worst among all players in baseball in outs above average at minus 7, trailing only Max Muncy, who plays a tougher position at third for the Dodgers.
Kepler qualifies as the only offensive upgrade to a lineup that ran aground in the playoffs last year, and he’s been far less valuable this year than Kody Clemens, who couldn’t get a game this year. Weston Wilson, on the team to hit lefties, has not, batting .152.
The Phillies professed faith in Marsh and Rojas.
Of the wild swings between glimmers of hope and abject batters’ box misery, the assumption was that more chances would reveal them to be closer to positive end of that spectrum. But in almost 650 career plate appearances, Rojas is a .258 hitter with no slug and no ability to draw walks, plus his 5-for-48 postseason track record doesn’t inspire confidence. His defensive ability is superb, but he’s a career fourth outfielder.
Marsh may not be much more. He’s a career .254/.329/.403 slash in more than 500 games. That’s a platoon candidate if he can hit righties effectively. But his positives remain primarily ifs, arguably too many for a team with a finite window to compete or too many to inspire patience with a 27-year-old.
The Phillies in the offseason elected to run it back with the same core.
Changes look increasingly necessary before the trade deadline and, when they come, the outfield is the most logical location.
One may come from within, though not immediately: First-round pick Justin Crawford is hitting .349 in Triple A. He’s not slugging much (.448), and he’s currently on the shelf with a quad issue that Thomson expects to be minor. Crawford got a taste of big-league pitching in spring, going 4-for-11, and he’s taken it as fuel in Lehigh Valley.
The Phillies are stocked on starting pitching, Aaron Nola’s injury notwithstanding. With Mick Abel excelling in the majors and Andrew Painter on the cusp, they have capital to reinforce the lineup and bullpen. The roster spots to do that will come from players who, increasingly, seem to be auditioning to convince the club to stick around beyond Aug. 1.
Those players got a vote of confidence from Dave Dombrowski and company in the winter, assuming more time would yield more results. It hasn’t, and it’s time to rescind that faith.
Contact Matthew De George at mdegeorge@delcotimes.com
Source: Berkshire mont