PHILADELPHIA — The T-shirts were printed and waiting for Phillies players in their lockers Tuesday ahead of the final homestand of the year.
“Whatever the hell it takes, Topper,” had been christened the unofficial motto of the 2025 postseason, uttered by J.T. Realmuto in the celebratory clubhouse in Los Angeles. As a guideline for how Rob Thomson will manage his pitching staff in the postseason, though, it remains less a slogan than a salient challenge.
What it will take for the Phillies is 11 postseason wins, provided they clinch the first-round bye that as of Wednesday afternoon was one Phillies win/one Dodgers loss away. But the pitching uncertainty more clearly revealed in a three-game September slide magnifies the need for creativity to navigate the playoffs.
A week out from the start of the postseason, Thomson knows – or is willing to admit to knowing – two things for certain. Cristopher Sanchez will toe the rubber in Game 1 of the NLDS on Oct. 4, then Game 4 on Oct. 9. Jhoan Duran will be the one most trusted to record the final out and however many are necessary before that.
In between, everything feels up for grabs, even 157 games into the season. The Phillies are not without options, but they do lack certainty in roles.
Part of that is due to the case of thoracic outlet surgery suffered by Zack Wheeler, ending his season and requiring decompression surgery on Tuesday. Had Wheeler been healthy, 80 percent of the Phillies’ NLDS starting staff would’ve been set, Wheeler and Sanchez as automatic a 1-2 choice as Wheeler and Aaron Nola had been for most of the last three postseasons. Sanchez has been positioned over the last two weeks to be on turn for Oct. 4.
Sans Wheeler, the quandaries start, with Thomson reiterating Wednesday that matchups matter. The division series, with a Sunday off at home, will require only three starters, from a staff that for most of September has carried six. Nola may be one, but if he is, it’s more on the basis of his experience than on the strength of a 2025 ERA that remains at 6.46 after 86 innings (and his unfamiliarity with/possible inability for pitching out of the bullpen).
Jesus Luzardo has been at times brilliant and at times disastrous. He carried a 4.08 ERA and 14-7 record into Wednesday night’s start against his former team, Miami. He had a 1.95 ERA through his first 10 starts, then a 7.50 ERA through his next 11. Since, a 3.16 ERA in 10 outings is probably more representative.
In aggregate it’s been rock solid. But enough to peg the hopes of Game 2 of a postseason series on?
“He’s had a really, really good year,” Thomson said. “I didn’t quite expect this. He’s going to surpass his innings for a year, he’s going to surpass strikeouts for a year. He’s just done a great job. He’s a great pickup.”
Ranger Suarez’s swings have been similarly extreme: Seven earned runs allowed in his first start, then 13 in his next 80 innings (a 1.46 ERA) followed by 21 earned runs in his next 28.2 innings (6.59 ERA), then a 1.47 ERA in six starts before giving up six earned runs last time out. He’s also been a proven bullpen contributor in past playoffs, something neither Nola nor Luzardo can say.
All that is before setting the stage for the bullpen, which is showing particular holes from the right side. Setting up Duran, the Phillies have few certainties. Former eighth-inning guy Orion Kerkering has a 7.36 ERA in 11 innings over 14 appearances. After allowing three homers in his first 47 innings, he’s allowed three in the last 11.
“I think it’s executing the slider,” Thomson said after Kerkering gave up two runs in the 10th inning Tuesday. “We talked about it last night after the game. He’s just not getting a lot of swing-and-mass. So he’s got to do a better job at that, and I know we will.”
After a 1.17 ERA in nine August appearances, David Robertson has a 7.88 ERA in nine September outings, batters hitting .324 against him. Max Lazar once looked to be growing into bigger roles but has struggled in August and beyond. Even if you exclude a six-run implosion in Chicago on July 30, he’s got a 4.05 ERA in 13.1 innings over his last 12 appearances.
The Phillies have options. For the Division Series, one of the four starters will be available out of the bullpen. Taijuan Walker hasn’t made a postseason roster in his first two seasons as a Phillie, but with a 4.18 ERA in 120 innings, he’s having his most effective campaign. Walker Buehler recorded the final out of the World Series last year with the Dodgers; surely that was part of the calculus in bringing him over, and he’s looked good in two appearances as a Phillie.
Ultimately, there was a structure in both 2022 and 2023 that was effective until it wasn’t. It relied on starters going predictably deep, then handing off to a predictable hierarchy of relievers. The bullpen in 2024 was viewed as a strength, then cratered against the Mets.
This year, the middle of games figures to be messier. It may require some unorthodox roles. But it’ll be with a team that, at least in screen-printed declarations, is open to whatever it takes.
Contact Matthew De George at mdegeorge@delcotimes.com.
Source: Berkshire mont