If Kamala Harris picks Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her vice presidential running mate, the numbers are the motivation.
“I think if that’s the case, then the Harris campaign is probably calculating that it’s all about the numbers,” Dr. Robert McMonagle, a political science professor at Neumann University, said.
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes. Another contender, U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, comes from Arizona, where there’s 11 electoral votes.
He also looked at the numbers Shapiro has pulled in his elections.
In 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 1% of the vote. However, that same election, Shapiro won his race for state attorney general by nearly 3 percentage points, McMonagle said.
He even had better numbers than Joe Biden, the Neumann professor said, in the 2020 general election. Then, McMonagle said, Biden won Pennsylvania by a point but Shapiro outperformed him, winning by 4 points.
McMonagle noted the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, where Shapiro beat his Republican contender, Doug Mastriano, by 15 points.
“Just looking at the numerical calculations, he’s got a pretty good chance,” McMonagle said.
However, the professor added, there are other solid candidates in Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former fighter pilot and astronaut Kelly.
McMonagle said Kelly is also known for his role in nourishing his wife, former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, back to health after being shot. He also has moderate stances on issues. He’s also situated in a typically red area of the Southwest.
However, McMonagle said the Arizona media have maintained that Kelly may not be as strong a debater as someone like Shapiro.
On the issues, the Neumann professor said Shapiro might have a weakness in his support for school vouchers.
“On the other hand,” McMonagle said, “he does seem to have strong union support. Kelly does not back unions to the point Shapiro does.”
He also noted that Shapiro would be the first Jewish candidate to become vice president.
And while his ethnicity may not factor into the selection, his stance on the Gaza-Israel war might.
“That’s a possible wild card that could go either way,” McMonagle said of Shapiro, noting his opposition to campus protests and his support of Israel but his clear opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu.
Another issue closer to home is the environment, particularly with liquefied natural gas.
McMonagle recalled how as attorney general, Shapiro sued Energy Transfer/Sunoco and won.
As governor, the professor added, “He has become more sympathetic to unions who want the jobs there.”
McMonagle himself shares a similarity with the Pennsylvania governor: They both served as congressional staffers. McMonagle served for U.S. Rep. Bob Smith and Shapiro for U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel.
If chosen by Harris as her running mate, Shapiro may be on the path to join the ranks of George Mifflin Dallas, the 11th vice president of the United States who was mayor of Philadelphia before serving under James K. Polk from March 1845 through March 1849.
The only president to come from Pennsylvania was the 15th, James Buchanan.
Back to current day, McMonagle said key issues for the Harris campaign in selecting a vice president may be the balance of environmental concerns versus union support and the war on Gaza.
At this point, McMonagle said he hadn’t yet seen how Shapiro will fit in the race in terms of which groups will lean favorably towards him on their ballots. With Harris, he said, she’s been polling well in important demographic groups like those in the 18 to 24-year-old age group, female voters and African-American voters.
Asked if someone could win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania, McMonagle said, “It would be difficult. Yes, it’s possible.”
Another open matter, of course, is that should Shapiro be named as Harris’ running mate, what happens to his current day job?
“He could continue to serve as governor while running,” McMonagle said, adding that he could also step down, allowing Austin Davis to become the first Black governor of Pennsylvania.
Source: Berkshire mont