The Phillies entered spring with a plan, with five names penciled to take the ball as starting pitchers, and with the evergreen hope that populates 29 other clubhouses not to deviate from that blueprint.
By the time players made their last beach run of the Clearwater portion of the schedule, that plan would change, if not as significantly as in years past. When No.4 rotation manTaijuan Walker’s shoulder landed him on the injured list, the in-case-of-emergency glass on Spencer Turnbull was shattered and any hopes for Phab Phive marketing materials were dashed before the printing company so much as drew up an estimate.
The unforeseen happens often in baseball, usually for a completely random instance, like a pennant winner starting the following season with a 25-32 record. And in the effort to make sure that doesn’t happen again in 2024 at Citizens Bank Park, the development of the last week of Phillies training camp only underscores the point that it started with: The onus is on the top-of-the-rotation starters to guide the club away from a season-limiting stumble out of the gates.
The Phillies eschewed big additions this winter to re-sign their twin aces, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Even with marquee free agents remaining on the market, the Phillies instead believe in the ace potential of Ranger Suarez, in the high upside and rapid improvement of Cristopher Sanchez and in the investment already sunk into Walker last year. Even if Walker was deemed the wrong fit for any of the team’s 13 playoff games, his 172 innings pitched and 15 wins in the regular season were hardly disposable.
The signing late Tuesday night of Jordan Montgomery by Arizona only underscored that imperative. Ostensibly one of the top free-agent starting pitchers on the market, Montgomery signed for a very un-marquee one year and $25 million with the reigning National League champs, with a vesting option for 2025. The price was sufficiently discounted to make those in Philadelphia already weary of Walker wonder if the luxury tax ramifications might be worth it to guarantee five big league starters all season long.
Instead, the Phillies dabbled, invited and kept options open. Turnbull was one such insurance policy. Fellow offseason acquisition Kolby Allard is another. The club has proven its ability in recent years to pluck gems from the rough and polish up their pitch arsenals to unlock new potential, as in the case of Sanchez’s elite changeup or Jeff Hoffman’s next-level slider. It’s a model scalable from year to year as new bodies arrive, but it depends on the platform of reliable production from the top of the rotation from Day 1, which has been absent the last two years.
Nola started last season in neutral, with an ERA north of seven through his first three starts and questions about his contract year swirling. The 12 runs allowed in his first 15 innings would be forgotten some 200 innings later by October, though their effect remained enshrined in the Phillies starting another NLDS in Atlanta.
Wheeler was up and down through the spring after a rough opener in Texas. He won three times in April, then lost three times in May. Suarez didn’t make his season debut until May 13 and didn’t look himself until early June. Sanchez wouldn’t claim his spot in the rotation until the season-saving swing through Arizona and Oakland.
April is usually one of Nola’s better months, with a 3.87 ERA and 13-9 mark in 37 career starts in the month (including March appearances). It’s Wheeler’s worst, his 4.31 ERA the only one of his splits above four (it’s a ludicrously consistent 3.05 from July 1 on). Suarez hasn’t pitched in two of the last three Aprils, with just four career starts before May 1. At age 28 and with 450 big league innings under his belt, it’s getting close to now or never on whether Suarez is going to take the step from isolated moments of brilliance to be the pitcher who commands nine figures on a long-term deal.
In decoding the mystery of the slow starts, as Hardy Boys Rob Thomson and Dave Dombrowski have this spring, more consistent starting pitching from the jump is not a tough clue to follow.
The factors this spring should point in the Phillies’ favor. Bryce Harper is healthy. Kyle Schwarber will DH daily. Trea Turner is settled. The bullpen is one of baseball’s best. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are older. No one is coming off a World Baseball Classic. Walker’s shoulder and an Orion Kerkering illness are the biggest health concerns of March, which any team would sign for.
Struggles to start a season are survivable. Recall that Bailey Falter started the third game of the 2023 season. Kyle Gibson started Game 2 in 2022. Both of those teams persevered to make the postseason.
But the goal for the 2024 Phillies is to do more than throw a handful of memorable October parties in South Philly. It’s to win a World Series, with nothing less qualifying as success.
And that push has to begin with urgency from the very start.
Contact Matthew De George at mdegeorge@delcotimes.com
Source: Berkshire mont
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