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NFL Week 11 Bettors Guide: Dolphins defense too good for any Jets QB

<u>THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET</u>

DOLPHINS at JETS

1 p.m., Dolphins by 3, 45 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Think about it. The Jets have allowed 45, 45, 31 and 54 points over their last four games. The Dolphins have allowed 10, 9, 26 (against the Bills) and 30. It’s that simple. The Miami QB situation is strange. Neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Jacoby Brissett are completely healthy. But even the plodding Dolphins should be able to have some success against these guys. Joe Flacco isn’t going to be lighting up the Miami defense, which has allowed just one TD each of the last two weeks. He’s going to be checking down an awful lot. The Fish have a decent secondary and can create turnovers.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.

GIANTS at BUCS

Monday, 8:15 p.m., Bucs by 11, 50 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The Bucs have been a different team at home, winning four games SU and covering three spreads of 10.5 points. But those wins came over the Bears, Dolphins and Falcons. The Giants defense has been much improved since getting destroyed by the Rams and is good enough to get enough stops to keep this close as they usually do against Tom Brady, even if he beats them in the end. With Saquon Barkley returning and Devontae Booker uncertain with a hip the Giants’ running back situation is muddled and Daniel Jones hasn’t been great in prime time. We’re treading carefully here. The Bucs aren’t going to lose a third straight game, certainly not at home, but it’s just too many points to ignore.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Giants and the over.

SAINTS at EAGLES

1 p.m., Eagles by 1 ½, 43 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: The line has reversed itself in favor of the Eagles, primarily because Nick Sirianni has seen the light and is running the football. Plus he has Miles Sanders back this week. One problem, though. New Orleans has allowed a league-low 3.1 yards per rush this season as opposed to the combined 4.75 ypc allowed by Philly’s last four opponents, the Raiders, Broncos, Lions and Chargers. And when Jalen Hurts has to throw, bad things happen. Sean Payton’s teams have bounced back at a 64% rate against the spread over the years and are 3-0 ATS after a loss this season. The Eagles haven’t won at home in over a year.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the over.

COWBOYS at CHIEFS

4:25 p.m., Chiefs by 2, 55 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Patrick Mahomes and Co. came up aces in Las Vegas and appear as though they can get on a roll again. Still, we have to go with the better defense in this one. KC’s defensive numbers have improved over the past three weeks against the Giants, the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers and the Raiders but that secondary is a brush fire waiting to happen with Dak Prescott holding the spark. An improved pass rush has been key to the Chiefs’ recent success but Prescott’s quick release can negate that. The Cowboys, too, can bring pressure. They also have 14 interceptions and three more fumble recoveries and will test what has been a turnover-prone offense for most of the year. Dallas is 3-0 ATS as a road dog this season and 15-5 as a road dog dating back to 2018. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS at home.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the over.

PACKERS at VIKINGS

1 p.m., Packers by 2 ½, 49 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: This is a much bigger game for the Vikings than it is for the Packers. They absolutely need this for their playoff chances and it happens to come at home against their biggest rival. They are also better than their 4-5 record, with four of those losses coming by a combined total of 11 points. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games between the teams. While many will look to other trends that favor the Packers (they are 9-0 ATS since opening day) and always like Aaron Rodgers as a short favorite, the Packers’ offense hasn’t exactly been sizzling. Even throwing out the game Rodgers missed, they haven’t scored 30 or more points since Week 3 against the Niners.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the under.

TEXANS at TITANS

1 p.m., Titans by 10 ½, 45

HANK’S HONEYS: After winning so many huge games against top teams, the Titans finally get a breather against the lowly Texans and there is no way they will be able to get up for this game the way they have over the last five. That’s especially true with a showdown coming up against Mike Vrabel’s old boss, Bill Belichick, and the Pats next week, and the divisional title sewed up. On the other hand, the Texans should give their top effort. Tyrod Taylor was downright awful in his return to action in Miami two weeks ago but will be better after a bye week. His legs give the offense a badly needed extra dimension and keep this under double digits.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under.

CARDINALS at SEAHAWKS

4:25 p.m., Cardinals by 2 ½, 48

HANK’S HONEYS: Russell Wilson should be better after a rusty return in Green Bay but will that be good enough with Kyler Murray set to return this week? It looks as though RB Chris Carson will miss another game with a neck injury and leave the Seahawks unable to take advantage of the Arizona run defense while leaving Russell at the mercy of the Cardinals’ outstanding pass rush. The Seahawks’ home-field advantage isn’t what it once was with a 2-2 ATS record this season. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS on the road and are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Seattle.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the under.

LIONS at BROWNS

1 p.m., Browns by 10, 43 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Destroyed in Foxborough, this has to be a get right game for the Browns if they’re anywhere close to being a playoff team. Last week was the Lions’ chance for their first win and they didn’t get it in Pittsburgh. It seems like every time they play somebody tough they fall apart the next week. Witness a 44-6 loss to the Eagles after hanging with the Rams, a 34-11 loss to the Bengals after a two-point loss to the Vikings and a 10-point loss to the Bears after nearly beating the Ravens. Add to that the uncertain status of Jared Goff with an oblique injury. Baker Mayfield is hobbled but the Browns will be back at full strength in the backfield with Nick Chubb and the Lions’ run defense is awful.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the under.

RAVENS at BEARS

1 p.m., Ravens by 6, 45

HANK’S HONEYS: You’d figure John Harbaugh will have the Ravens in angry bounceback mode after that horrendous performance in Miami. They are a team that keeps falling behind and last week, it caught up to them. Now they’ll have over 10 days to figure out the all-out blitz that the Dolphins threw at Lamar Jackson. The weak spot of this Ravens defense is against the pass but Justin Fields has not proven that he can beat teams with his arm — and the Ravens see a scrambling QB every practice. The Bears have problems stopping the run and if they can’t do that here, they won’t be in the game.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.

BENGALS at RAIDERS

4:05 p.m., Bengals by 1, 49 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: Both teams have been disappointing over the past few weeks but it’s the Raiders who seem to be in more trouble. Their offense has always been a bit one-dimensional toward the pass and now, with Henry Ruggs gone, teams can focus on taking away TE Darren Waller’s underneath routes. Teams generally haven’t been good coming off the bye this year but the Bengals really needed the week off to reset after stinkers against the Jets and Browns. Joe Burrow and the Cincy offense is capable of following the blueprint the Chiefs laid out last week and we expect his top weapon, Ja’Marr Chase, to shake off the worst game of his rookie year. The Raiders’ secondary gives up some big plays.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.


<u>LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH</u>

STEELERS at CHARGERS

8:20 p.m., Chargers by 4 ½, 47

HANK’S HONEYS: Ben Roethlisberger’s COVID status is up in the air, which is enough reason to stay away from this game. That said, something has been wrong with the Chargers since their fast start. It almost seems that defenses have caught up with Justin Herbert, although he has too much talent not to break out one of these weeks. Mason Rudolph was unable to do much against the Lions. That shouldn’t have been surprising since Rudolph didn’t take any first-team reps all week and he’ll be better prepared for this game if he has to play. Plus, the Steelers will test the Chargers’ defense with Najee Harris.

CAN’T HELP YOURSELF? Steelers and the under.


<u>BEST OF THE REST</u>

49ERS at JAGUARS

1 p.m., Niners by 6, 46 ½

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jaguars and the under.

WASHINGTON at PANTHERS

1 p.m., Panthers by 3, 43

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the under.

COLTS at BILLS

1 p.m., Bills by 7, 50

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the over.


WEEK’S BEST BET: Bengals. Time to fade the Raiders.

Last week: 8-6

Overall: 74-74-2

Over/under: 78-72

Best Bets: 6-4


Source: Berkshire mont

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