Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (3-7) and New York Jets (2-7) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 11 game at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):
When the Dolphins run: The Jets rank 29th in the NFL in run defense, but I’m done ever giving the Dolphins an edge in this category after they couldn’t even run on the Houston Texans two weeks ago. Miami owns the worst rushing attack in the NFL at a putrid 73.6 yards per game on the ground.
Running backs Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed are averaging 3.4 yards and 2.7 yards per attempt, respectively. The offensive line should be able to get a better push with how the team likes guards Robert Hunt and Austin Jackson when they get downhill, but it hasn’t come to fruition. Maybe quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s reinsertion into the lineup opens up run-pass option opportunities in the running game.
The Jets have middle linebacker C.J. Mosley leading the team in tackles with 72 in their 4-3 scheme. Blocking former No. 3 pick Quinnen Williams (6 foot 3, 303 pounds) will be a key to get the ground game going. Edge: Jets
When the Jets run: The Dolphins just shut down the Ravens’ top-ranked rushing attack, so I’m very high on this Miami run defense at the moment. Sure, it’s a different dynamic stopping Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson’s scrambling abilities than a traditional rushing attack, but the Dolphins have held opponents under 100 yards rushing in four of the past five games, including limiting the Ravens to 94.
Rookie Jets running back Michael Carter leads the New York rushing attack, but the former North Carolina Tar Heel is not running against Manny Diaz’s Miami Hurricanes defense this time. Carter is at 3.6 yards per carry this season, and he has Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman spelling him. Carter and Johnson are also pass-catching threats.
The key for the Dolphins’ run defense has been the reinsertion of nose tackle Raekwon Davis into the lineup. Since he has returned in earnest from his knee injury, Miami has been tough to run against. Expect inside linebacker and leading tackler Jerome Baker (54 tackles) to return to his traditional alignment after he was utilized much on the edge against the Ravens to prevent Jackson from outrunning defenders to the sideline. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: Tagovailoa’s fractured middle finger on his throwing hand is improving to the point where he has increased his practice workload and coach Brian Flores named him the starter early in the week after only keeping him available off the bench for backup Jacoby Brissett in the past two victories. Tagovailoa entered in the second half against the Ravens to go 8 of 13 for 158 yards and a rushing touchdown.
He said he should have no limitations on the throws he’s able to make against the Jets. Against Baltimore, he just about showed the extent of how far he can get a ball out with a 35-yard pass to the sideline with arc that found receiver Jaylen Waddle, who is sixth in the NFL in receptions (60). Miami was able to dial up some plays that led to breakdowns in the Ravens’ secondary, leading to a 64-yard pass from Tagovailoa to Albert Wilson and one of 52 yards from Brissett to Isaiah Ford.
The Jets’ pass defense is liable to have some miscues just as easily, ranking 31st in the NFL. They’ve only intercepted two passes all season, so they’re not very turnover-inducing, but they can get a pass rush against the Dolphins’ offensive line with Williams posting five sacks and defensive end John Franklin-Myers with four. Edge: Dolphins
When the Jets pass: With rookie quarterback Zach Wilson still not fully recovered from his knee injury and Mike White, a former local high school standout at University School, throwing four interceptions against the Bills last week, Jets coach Robert Saleh is going with veteran Joe Flacco. Part of the thinking is Flacco being more adept at handling expected Dolphins’ blitzes, which Miami came with in droves in the past two wins, especially versus Jackson and the Ravens.
The 36-year-old has only thrown three passes this season at the end of the loss to the Bills last week but competed all of them with one for a touchdown. Flacco started last year’s 24-0 shutout loss to the Dolphins in Miami, and he went 21 of 44 for 186 yards and an interception. Deep threats Corey Davis and Keelan Cole, former St. Thomas Aquinas High wideout Elijah Moore and slot receivers Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios, a University of Miami alum, will have to be accounted for.
The Dolphins cornerback tandem of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones appears to be healthy after playing through leg injuries earlier in the season. They’ve come into form of late, allowing the Miami defense to have them play single coverage and blitz safeties Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones a ton. The Dolphins have six takeaways in the past two wins. Howard won AFC Defensive Player of the Week after forcing a fumble and returning the recovery for a touchdown in the Baltimore win. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: Jets kicker Matt Ammendola is 10 of 13 on the season with all of his misses from beyond 40 yards. He also has missed an extra point. Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is 12 of 16 and has connected on all 17 of his point-after attempts.
Dolphins punter Michael Palardy is averaging 44.2 yards on his punt. He has had his struggles, but the combination of him and gunner Mack Hollins are usually good for a punt downed deep into opponent’s territory at least once a game. The Jets went back to Braden Mann as punter last week. Berrios has been a solid returner on both kicks and punts for New York, but the Jets went to Coleman on kickoffs last week. Edge: Even
Intangibles: The Dolphins have the advantage of coming in hot after two straight wins, one an upset over the Ravens, and are better rested after getting the weekend off following a Thursday night game. Miami has recent success in the series, sweeping last year’s two games and winning six of the past seven meetings, but even when one team is down, interesting things can happen in this historic rivalry. Edge: Dolphins
PREDICTION: Dolphins 24, Jets 17
Source: Berkshire mont
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