For as showy as a Wednesday victory over the league-leading Phoenix Suns might have been, what benefits the Miami Heat more at this stage of the season are a few sensible wins.
Because not all victories are created equally in a playoff race.
With the Eastern Conference race so tight at the top, an argument could be made of Friday night’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at FTX Arena having greater meaning than anything that could have been achieved in what turned into Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Suns.
For that matter, the same could be said about a victory this coming Tuesday over the lottery-bound Detroit Pistons having more meaning than a Saturday night victory over the surging Minnesota Timberwolves.
Why? Because conference games mean more, potentially far more, when it comes to playoff tiebreakers.
The NBA’s first playoff tiebreaker is head-to-head record.
The Heat finished their season series against the Milwaukee Bucks in a 2-2 tie.
Should the Heat lose their March 21 road game against the Philadelphia 76ers, that season series also would end in a 2-2 tie.
In each case, the next tiebreaker would be if one of the tied teams is a division champion.
Except . . . the Heat are going to win the Southeast in a runaway, and the 76ers lead the Atlantic and the Bucks lead the Central. So potentially a three-way tie in that aspect, as well.
That makes conference record the next tiebreaker, which is why games against conference opponents mean more.
The Heat find themselves well positioned in that aspect of the playoff race, entering Friday at 28-13 against the conference. By comparison, the Bucks go into the weekend at 24-12 against the East, the 76ers at 19-14.
And while the Bulls are a healthy 25-17 against the East, the Heat lead that four-game season series 3-0.
With an older core featuring players such as 36-year-old P.J. Tucker and 35-year-old Kyle Lowry, it could be interesting to see if coach Erik Spoelstra prioritizes the games that mean more the balance of the regular season.
Such as:
March 21 at 76ers: With a victory, the Heat not only would clinch the season series 3-1 over Philadelphia, but also would clinch a three-way tie involving themselves, the 76ers and Bucks.
That would come because of a 5-3 aggregate record against the Bucks and 76ers. The best the Bucks could do is 4-3, currently at 1-1 against the 76ers with one meeting remaining with Philadelphia.
However, if the Heat lose in Philadelphia, they could not win such a three-team tiebreaker at a collective 4-4. That is because it then would leave the winner of the March 29 Bucks at 76ers with a 4-3 record in that three-team pool (the 76ers and Bucks only play three times this season).
March 30 at Boston: The Celtics already have clinched the three-game season series by winning the first two meetings in blowouts.
However, if the Heat wind up in a three-team tie with the Celtics and the 76ers, a final 0-3 record could against the Celtics could offset a potential 3-1 season-series win against Philadelphia.
April 3 in Chicago: Again, the season series has been won against the Bulls, but if there is multiple-team tiebreaker with the Bulls and say either the Bucks or 76ers, a 4-0 record against Chicago could go a long way to the Heat’s advantage.
NBA playoff tiebreakers: two teams
(1) Head-to-head won-lost percentage.
(2) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division.
(3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division.
(4) Conference won-lost percentage.
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference.
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference.
(7) Net Points, all games.
NBA playoff tiebreakers: multiple teams
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division.
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage.
(3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division.
(4) Conference won-lost percentage.
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference.
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference.
(7) Net Points, all games.
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Source: Berkshire mont
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